The world’s benchmark borrowing cost reaches a generation high
The US ten-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.33% today, its highest since 2002, as the global bond sell-off deepened. The thirty-year yield also reached a 2002 high. This is not just a stock-market subplot: Treasury yields help set the price of mortgages, corporate finance and government borrowing around the world.
The important change is the competition for capital. Persistent inflation and large government deficits are keeping yields elevated; analysts quoted in today’s Reuters report also point to enormous financing demand from the AI sector. Data centres and other AI infrastructure need money as well as electricity and chips. That does not prove AI caused today’s move, but it helps explain why a better inflation reading alone may not restore cheap borrowing.
Higher yields make refinancing public debt more expensive and raise the hurdle for productive investment. The lesson is not that a crash is inevitable: it is that assuming a return to the pre-pandemic era of cheap capital is increasingly risky.