The world economy is slowing—but not moving together
UN Trade and Development's new report projects global growth of 2.6% this year, against 2.9% in 2025, with the Middle East energy shock weighing on activity. Its more revealing finding is the uneven geography: Asia is expected to provide 59% of global growth. China–US trade has fallen more than 20% since 2024, while East Asia has expanded trade with both China and North America.
Trade fragmentation does not necessarily mean trade disappears; it can change routes and beneficiaries. Export controls, investment screening and supply-chain requirements make strategic industries harder for newcomers to enter. AI-related goods are driving merchandise trade, but UNCTAD warns that this does not automatically deliver broad development gains—and that financial markets' exposure to a few companies creates risks.
Yesterday's brief covered energy-driven market pressure. Today's addition is a newly released assessment of the underlying economy: technological expansion can coexist with slower overall growth and widening gaps. These are forecasts, not settled outcomes. UNCTAD's dated release listing →